Vladimir Putin says that it would be ridiculous to think that Assad gassed his own people. What would he have to gain? He would turn the world against him.
Yesterday, in a diary that I recommended, Meteor Blades published a retired foreign affairs official's analysis of whether or not Assad was behind the gassing of his people, who said that based on his expert opinion and former access to classified documents, he concluded that the evidence was not yet in.
Yesterday, Chris Hayes' deep prodding on this question opened what for me was a new understanding of what Assad might have had to "gain" from gassing his own people or at least what might have been his "motivation".
(Sorry I tried to find the "All In" transcript from last night, but failed. If MSNBC calls me back with the info I'll add the guest's name and the title of his his book about how dictators "think".
Hayes' guest said that Assad had a plausible reason in his own mind to commit such a heinous crime - to shore up his creds with the Alawites, the Shia Muslims who are his base. To prove that he, Assad, was standing with them and had crossed a rubicon that kept him squarely in their corner.
So maybe Vladimir Putin is mistaken?
I watched a speech on CSPAN several months ago given by Assad to a few thousand of his base. It was absolutely remarkable in revealing the man's state of denial. He spoke as though his regime and the people in the room - the good guys - were under siege from a foreign enemy. At no point did he concede that the "enemy" was his own people. It was as though there was an invasion of outsiders who had to be crushed at any cost. He appealed to the audience as their beloved leader who would defeat the threat. It seemed like a serious crowd - no pun intended - like they were waiting for him to prove that he was up to the task and what he was prepared to do to safeguard them. The applause when Assad spoke of his commitment to these people and what had to be done was like that in any political gathering of the faithful. Give us what we want to hear. It seemed like a frightening bubble of denial that held that auditorium. There was, according to Assad's speech, (reading between the sharply drawn lines) not one Syrian in the opposition who deserved to be listened to - they were all devils.
One possible scenario that came to my mind that might make sense out of Bashar al-Asaad's mind that according to Chris Hayes' guest's hypothesis is the the following made up story:
Assad is under tremendous pressure, from the west and from ME states to take his loot and leave. Word gets out to Assad's base, the Alawites, that this offer is on the table for Assad. They know that the regime is their last hope to survive b/c if Assad leaves, they've had it. So they are pressuring him big time that if he doesn't stand firm they will have no choice but to throw him to the wolves and get someone more reliable to replace him. He panics and decides that the only way he can prove himself to them is to do something so awful, so hideous and against international law that he will prove to his base, once and for all, that he's standing with them to the death.
Just my spontaneous thoughts after hearing Chris Hayes' guest last night.
Here's the wikipedia link to Assad:
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
Please note that he was trained as a doctor and according to wikipedia had no interest in politics when he was younger. Quite bizarre how he came to this.
